An Attack On Iran - What Can Be The Aftermath?

Iran - A country of over seventy five million people. A country, which ranks second and third in the world for its gas and oil reserves respectively. And a country which is suspected to possess nukes. Considered to be 'semi-developed' by the UN, Iran is a country rich in cultural heritage, many civilizations and cultures arose in this region. However, Iran is one of the countries that oppose Judaism and the Jews. In fact, the current president of Iran, Mehmoud Ahmedinejad, doesn't believe in the holocaust, and openly opposes the existence of Israel. The war of words, has led to a sort of instability in the region with Iran and Israel warning each other of military strikes.

It all started with the Iranian president Mehmoud Ahmedinejad announcing that the country will be going nuclear in terms of electricity generation. This is when the IAEA experts found traces of enriched uranium and plutonium which were unaccounted for. This was enough to start a series of negotiations, with Ahmedinejad remaining adamant regarding Iran's position, even when several economic incentives were offered by the European Union.

After all the hoopla, everything has boiled down, with Israel preparing for a possible air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. The US has backed this move, however, it won't provide Israel with any logistical support. But have they given this a second thought? With the economies crumbling slowly, the move may prove to be disastrous. Here's how :

• Oil Prices : As, I mentioned earlier, Iran is one of the leading exporters of crude oil and natural gas. It aims to generate nuclear power in order to reduce the dependency on fossil fuels, so that it can export more of it. Following such an attack, the current price rise of crude oil notwithstanding, the prices of crude oil will shoot still further, and maybe even touch the $200 mark. The price rise took place due to tensions of a possible military strike on iran. Then one can imagine scenario once Iran is attacked.


• Iran's Retaliation : Will Iran simply keep staring at this? Absolutely not. It has already tested three missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads and striking Israel. We can all expect full retaliation from all fronts, including sending in armed militia like Hezbollah and other minor groups, which can be too dangerous for the Israelis. Who knows, Iran may probably attack American military bases in the middle east, especially, Iraq.


• The Gulf Blockade : Iran controls the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which are one of the most important trade routes for oil export. In the event of an attack, Iran may attempt to block the route completely or impose sanctions. This may totally blow the prices of fossil fuels, and a real shortage of fuel.


• Total instability in the Middle East : With Iran declaring a war on Israel, the momentum will spread throughout the middle east region. Lebanon, Jordan, all those who are just waiting for some disturbance, may get the bait and a full scale civil war would erupt against the respective governments backed by the US. There is also a strong possibility of this momentum spreading into the north African countries like Libya and Nigeria, due to which the prices of crude oil may shoot even further.


• Fears of a full scale World War : Other countries(read Russia) may interfere, and with one country, a list of countries may follow suit. This could further escalate the crisis and, God forbid, lead to a deadly World War. And if a World War erupts, it may be enough to annihilate the entire human race(sounds scary, doesn't it?).

I think, there is only solution - diplomatic negotiations. Somehow, everyone has to persuade Iran to stop the further enrichment of uranium. One more solution would be to install IAEA safeguards and monitor all the enrichment facilities throughout Iran. If any suspicious activity is detected, then Iran must be informed immediately, and the rest should be handled by the UN.

Do you think there's a way to stop all this? Or a possible consequence of an attack on Iran? Please elaborate in the comments section...

The Crude Oil Crisis : Who Is To Blame?

The latest chain of events that has shaken the economies of the world is the rising price of crude oil. Just recently it touched the $135 mark. Who knows, it may even cross the $200 mark by the end of the year, if this trend continues. Various questions have been raised about the same all over the world, and as usual, the blame game starts. The oil corps blame the Middle East, and the Middle East blames the rising dollar. But the questions is, the common man blames whom?

The Scenario

Crude oil prices suddenly accelerated their upward journey and within no time touched the 135 dollar mark. Suddenly, the prises of commodities and services that depend on fossil fuels rose sharply. For instance, air travel became costlier owing to high prices of ATF. All this in turn triggered a rise in inflation.

How Did It Happen?

Frankly, even I don't know what went wrong, as I'm no business analyst. Some people say, the rise of the dollar, some say the oil companies are upto their old tricks, while some say, this is the handiwork of the US. But no one has a convincing answer for this question.

What's Going On In India?

Thankfully, the prices of petrol or diesel haven't increased, thanks to Union Oil Ministry. But this has had a huge negative impact on the oil companies. For instance, the Indian Oil Corporation reported around Rs.414 crores in losses. Just recently, the Finance Minister was planning to include a fuel cess on the income taxes, but since the general elections will be there next year, the government is unwilling to take any chances(I think the elections should be held every year then).

Possible Solution For India

India has plenty of options to curb the rising prices of petrol and diesel. One of the options is to cut the heavy import duty levied on crude oil. Consider this: Petrol is priced at Rs.27 a litre in Pakistan, while in New Delhi, where the fuel price is lowest in India, hovers around Rs.45. So, a reduction in the import duty plus the state octroi charges can bring down, or atleast stabilise the fuel costs. Other options include rationalising supply, subsidised supply of fuel, or to stick on to CNG or LPG.

The Blame Game

As usual, the blame begins. Some oil companies claimed that a 'break' between the supply and demand is one of the reasons for the price rise. While others claim that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC) maybe behind the crisis. And what's more, some even point an accusing finger towards the Bush administration for its stance against Iran.

What I Feel...

As I said earlier, I'm not any sort of an analyst. So what I believe may or may not correct. Anyway, I feel this may be the work of OPEC and the oil companies as well to milk the consumers. Who knows, the oil traders may also be reacting to the 'war' going on in Iraq. Whatever the reason, I think it's time realise the importance of alternate eco-friendly energy sources for not only their eco-friendliness, but also their cost efficiency and abundant presence.

But, What's Your Opinion?

So what do you feel about all this? Who do you think is the culprit, or what's the possible solution? Please leave your comments below...

Musharraf : Heads, I win, tails YOU lose !

I think the General has started his tactics again. This is evident from the announcement that came yesterday from one of the Supreme court lawyers that even if Musharraf loses the ballot battle, he may as well retain his position as the chief of the armed forces. He is one the closest ally of the United States which downs his image in front of his own people. He be came the ruler of Pakistan in 1999, just after the Kargil war which Pakistan lost, after ousting the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Many events have benn rocking Pakistan since the last few months which include the re-election of Iftikar Choudhary as the CJ, the military ambush as Lal Masjid and the latest being the threat from Osama Bin Laden. The chances of the General being assassinated are becoming more and more. With the United States on one side and the people of Pakistan on the other, it has really become tough for Mush to take sensitive decisions.......

........Or is it just the games people play....

Parliamentarian Award for Chid justified?

Yesterday, MPs Sharad Pawar, Manishankar Aiyar, Sushma Swaraj and Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambaram received the best Parliamentarian awards. I don't know much about others, but about Chidambaram,I can say that he does not deserve this honour. Since his tenure as the finance 
minister,  only some limited fields have made progress. The Stock market more than doubled, the GDP growth was around 8%, but the main question remains answered.........What about the common man? Inflation reached new heights, price rise is constantly on the rise........and the list goes on. What's the use of this so called development if the common man can't sustain this development? Then what's the difference between China and India if the rich become richer and 
the poor become poorer. Then I would say that China is on a much safer position as their government has started realising this problem. Let's hope the same happens here too....

Hats off to DEMOCRACY :(