An Attack On Iran - What Can Be The Aftermath?

3 Responses

Iran - A country of over seventy five million people. A country, which ranks second and third in the world for its gas and oil reserves respectively. And a country which is suspected to possess nukes. Considered to be 'semi-developed' by the UN, Iran is a country rich in cultural heritage, many civilizations and cultures arose in this region. However, Iran is one of the countries that oppose Judaism and the Jews. In fact, the current president of Iran, Mehmoud Ahmedinejad, doesn't believe in the holocaust, and openly opposes the existence of Israel. The war of words, has led to a sort of instability in the region with Iran and Israel warning each other of military strikes.

It all started with the Iranian president Mehmoud Ahmedinejad announcing that the country will be going nuclear in terms of electricity generation. This is when the IAEA experts found traces of enriched uranium and plutonium which were unaccounted for. This was enough to start a series of negotiations, with Ahmedinejad remaining adamant regarding Iran's position, even when several economic incentives were offered by the European Union.

After all the hoopla, everything has boiled down, with Israel preparing for a possible air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. The US has backed this move, however, it won't provide Israel with any logistical support. But have they given this a second thought? With the economies crumbling slowly, the move may prove to be disastrous. Here's how :


  • Oil Prices : As, I mentioned earlier, Iran is one of the leading exporters of crude oil and natural gas. It aims to generate nuclear power in order to reduce the dependency on fossil fuels, so that it can export more of it. Following such an attack, the current price rise of crude oil notwithstanding, the prices of crude oil will shoot still further, and maybe even touch the $200 mark. The price rise took place due to tensions of a possible military strike on iran. Then one can imagine scenario once Iran is attacked.

  • Iran's Retaliation : Will Iran simply keep staring at this? Absolutely not. It has already tested three missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads and striking Israel. We can all expect full retaliation from all fronts, including sending in armed militia like Hezbollah and other minor groups, which can be too dangerous for the Israelis. Who knows, Iran may probably attack American military bases in the middle east, especially, Iraq.

  • The Gulf Blockade : Iran controls the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which are one of the most important trade routes for oil export. In the event of an attack, Iran may attempt to block the route completely or impose sanctions. This may totally blow the prices of fossil fuels, and a real shortage of fuel.

  • Total instability in the Middle East : With Iran declaring a war on Israel, the momentum will spread throughout the middle east region. Lebanon, Jordan, all those who are just waiting for some disturbance, may get the bait and a full scale civil war would erupt against the respective governments backed by the US. There is also a strong possibility of this momentum spreading into the north African countries like Libya and Nigeria, due to which the prices of crude oil may shoot even further.

  • Fears of a full scale World War : Other countries(read Russia) may interfere, and with one country, a list of countries may follow suit. This could further escalate the crisis and, God forbid, lead to a deadly World War. And if a World War erupts, it may be enough to annihilate the entire human race(sounds scary, doesn't it?).

I think, there is only solution - diplomatic negotiations. Somehow, everyone has to persuade Iran to stop the further enrichment of uranium. One more solution would be to install IAEA safeguards and monitor all the enrichment facilities throughout Iran. If any suspicious activity is detected, then Iran must be informed immediately, and the rest should be handled by the UN.

Do you think there's a way to stop all this? Or a possible consequence of an attack on Iran? Please elaborate in the comments section...

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3 Responses:

Tony on July 26, 2008 at 12:33 PM

I really don't see how there will NOT be an attack on Iran. I believe it will be pre-emptive by Israel, before we get our next president, due to the fact they know that Obama will not be as fast to join in, as Bush will.

Tony Cathey
http://www.imablogger.net

CasualBlogger on July 27, 2008 at 1:31 PM

I have the feeling that we won't see a direct clash between the US and Iran this year, and somehow I think that it will be avoided in the coming years too.
Because of this Israel won't attack Iran, it wouldn't work, just as their last adventure with Lebanon, didn't ended according to their plans.
Iran is bigger and further away than Lebanon. Neither the US nor Israel can afford to loose another war.
We live in a new Cold War. I would call it Cold War II.

Peace!! Shalom!! Salam!!

Anonymous on August 24, 2008 at 8:26 AM

I hope there wouldn't be a war between them because it will really affect the oil prices.

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